Analyst Firm Doubtful of Tesla Gigafactory Value

September 5, 2014

Patrick Ponticel

Days before Tesla on Sept. 4 announced it has selected Nevada as the state in which it will build a large "Gigafactory' battery plant, Lux Research opined that the savings in lithium-ion battery costs owing to high-volume efficiencies will not be as much as the automaker expects it to be. Lux predicts Tesla will sell fewer than half of the 500,000 it predicts for 2020. The Gigafactory will reduce the cost of the upcoming high-volume Model 3 by only $2800, Lux says, "not enough to sway the success of the planned lower-cost EV." Tesla had very little to say in a press release announcing the site selection decision. In an earlier release, the automaker said the Gigafactory will produce cells, modules, and packs for Tesla's electric vehicles and for the stationary storage market. Tesla projects Gigafactory output at 35 GW·h of cells and 50 GW·h of packs per year by 2020.