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Space Debris Orbit and Attitude Prediction for Enhanced and Efficient Space Situational Awareness

Developing accurate models to predict the behavior of manmade debris in space could be the key to preventing collisions with satellites.

This research deals with the problem of modelling the orbit and attitude motion of uncontrolled manmade objects in orbit about the Earth, which tumble due to the natural influences of the near-Earth space environment. A mathematical, physics-based and computational approach is taken to model the forces and torques that drive the orbit and attitude evolution of such objects. The main influence modelled is solar radiation pressure (SRP), which is the interaction of solar electromagnetic radiation with the surface of an object, leading to both forces and torques that influence the orbital and attitude motion. Other influences, such as the gravitational field of the Earth, are also modelled.

Figure 1. An historic graph of the quantity of objects in orbit with a characteristic size above 10 cm. (NASA Orbital Debris Quarterly Newsletter)

Modern society has become heavily reliant upon space technologies for a wide variety of services, including communication, banking, weather prediction, Earth observation and global positioning. Since the first manmade satellite became operational in 1957, there have been over 5,000 space launches, resulting in a plethora of both operational and non-operational Space Resident Objects (SROs). The evolution of the number of SROs is shown in Figure 1.

The current constellation of over 1,000 operational satellites is at serious risk of collision with some 20,000 large space debris and countless smaller debris. A rendered image of the active satellites and all catalogued debris is shown in Figure 2. In the event of a few collisions, a cascading runaway effect could lead to the rapid cluttering of near-Earth space, which would cause collisions and the breakup of many active satellites in a short period of time. This is known as the Kessler syndrome. The broad field that deals with the observation and modelling of the near-Earth space environment is known as SSA.

Before decisions can be made regarding remediation of this problem, the current scenario must be better understood. This part of the problem can be approached in two ways: through observation, and through modelling. The former utilizes recent improvements in remote sensing techniques such as Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), bistatic radar, optical observation networks, and potentially space-based observation, which enable more accurate tracking of the contents of near-Earth space. The latter involves taking such observations and applying laws of physics to predict the future movements of debris, and then comparing those predictions to later observations for validation of the modelling techniques.

Figure 2. A plot of the debris catalogue from the SpaceTrak database, colored by orbit type.

The two approaches must be combined to give accurate predictions on what will happen in the future, and such a combination of observation and modelling is crucial in finding how to minimize the impact of space debris on the near-Earth space environment. Failure to deal with this problem could lead to a widescale breakdown of global infrastructure with dramatic impact to modern society

Finding the contents of near-Earth space and how they are moving is a difficult task - primarily due to the large number of physically similar objects and the vast volume within which these objects are orbiting. The problem of SSA has been highlighted as a key issue for future space activity, both by the United States Air Force (USAF) and by the European Space Agency (ESA). Initiatives such as ESA CleanSpace will lead to Active Debris Removal (ADR), which aims to deorbit larger debris to prevent further cluttering of near-Earth space. ESA aims to remove Envisat around 2021 as part of the CleanSpace initiative, as it is a large and heavy satellite that poses a significant risk for collision and cluttering of near-Earth space. Understanding its tumbling motion is of the utmost importance for such a mission to be successful.

This work was done by Hira Singh Virdee, University College London for the Air Force Research Laboratory. AFRL-0266

Topics:
Aerospace Gravity Imaging Materials Physical Sciences Pressure Research and development Satellites Satellites Simulation Software Simulation and modeling Transportation Vehicles Vehicles Waste materials
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Space Debris Orbit and Attitude Prediction for Enhanced and Efficient Space Situational Awareness

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    Aerospace & Defense Technology Magazine

    This article first appeared in the October, 2018 issue of Aerospace & Defense Technology Magazine (Vol. 3 No. 6).

    Read more articles from this issue here.

    Read more articles from the archives here.

    Overview

    The document outlines a thesis focused on the modeling of space debris orbits, addressing a critical issue in space situational awareness. The research is structured into several chapters, each contributing to a comprehensive understanding of the problem and the development of effective solutions.

    Chapter 1 introduces the context of space debris, highlighting its accumulation due to decades of human activity in space. It sets the stage for the importance of understanding and managing this debris to ensure the safety of active spacecraft and minimize the risk of collisions.

    Chapter 2 provides an overview of the scientific theories necessary to comprehend previous research in the field of space debris. This theoretical foundation is crucial for understanding the complexities involved in modeling debris orbits.

    In Chapter 3, a review of historical and contemporary studies on space debris is presented, identifying gaps in prior research. This review leads to a clear problem statement in Chapter 4, which outlines the specific aims and objectives of the current research.

    Chapter 4 also details the methods developed to achieve these objectives, focusing on innovative approaches to modeling the orbits of space debris. The verification of these methods is discussed in Chapter 5, where initial results using basic test objects are presented.

    Chapter 6 showcases the key results derived from the methods applied to various test scenarios, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed models. Following this, Chapter 7 presents additional studies that complement the main research, providing further insights into the behavior of space debris.

    Chapter 8 discusses the real-world applications of the research findings, emphasizing their significance in enhancing space situational awareness and improving safety measures for spacecraft operations. The practical implications of the research are crucial for stakeholders in the aerospace industry.

    Finally, Chapter 9 summarizes the thesis and presents overall conclusions, reinforcing the importance of continued research in space debris management. The appendices include contributions to the field, such as papers presented at conferences, further enriching the academic discourse on this pressing issue.

    Overall, the thesis contributes valuable knowledge and methodologies to the field of space debris research, aiming to improve predictive models and enhance safety in space operations.

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