Reconsidering Hybrids

OEMs that don’t believe in a one-size-fits-all powertrain future have kept their faith in HEVs.

Hybrids such as Ford’s 2022 Maverick deliver comprehensive cabin heat, driving range and worry-free refueling that no EV can yet match. (Ford)

After conversations I had with powertrain engineering executives during the 2022 SAE WCX World Congress, and in reading our reports on the panel discussions, I can conclude two things. First, mobility-industry planning currently faces more uncertainty than at any period in recent memory. It’s not a good time to bet on EV sales forecasts and ICE-end dates that seemed unrealistic even before Covid, the chip crisis, and Putin’s war of obliteration. Unforeseen externalities have a way of altering outlooks.

Secondly, hybrid-electric propulsion will play a significant role in global vehicle electrification and CO2 reduction in the next decade. I’m confident of that. And much of the industry seems to agree. One-quarter of Toyota’s vehicle sales in 2021 were electrified vehicles, most of them hybrids. The company that created the modern hybrid and made them aspirational, profitable, and reliable is assembling a pragmatic portfolio – hybrid- and plug-in hybrid vehicles, BEVs, and fuel cell EVs. “We don’t believe a one-size-fits-all approach will work,” Dante Boutell, VP of powertrain design for Toyota North America, told the SAE audience.

Honda is expanding standard-hybrid offerings across its lineup as it continues fuel-cell and EV collaborations with GM. Citing these uncertain times, the CEO of BMW and CTO of Mercedes each recently warned that overcommitting on EVs could leave them vulnerable in vehicle sales and in the procurement and cost of strategic raw materials. "When you look at the technology coming out, the EV push, we must be careful because at the same time, you increase dependency on very few countries," asserted BMW boss Oliver Zipse to a media group during the New York auto show.

And China? It is experiencing a revival of hybrid technology, according to a recent analysis by engineering consultants FEV. China’s best-selling “new energy vehicle” is a series-hybrid SUV with a 40-kWh battery. Admittedly, having both hybrids and BEVs within a single vehicle segment may require OEMs to adopt a two-platform strategy to optimize each powertrain’s benefits. That approach is counter to what EV advocates say is a key advantage of battery-electrics: reduced build complexity and bill-of-material. But FEV, with its intimate knowledge of tech trends and developments, anticipates OEMs will need “a significant share” of hybrid-electric vehicles, in addition to BEVs, to comply with 2030 EU CO2 laws.

They are vastly superior to even the priciest EVs in this metric. Ford’s new $21,000 Maverick hybrid can deliver over 550 miles of driving, beating Cadillac’s $59,000 Lyric EV and Tesla’s $40,000 Model Y each by about 200 miles. There’s also the benefit of having a “heat engine” for complete cabin warming, no matter how low the ambient temperature and regardless of duty cycle.

Hybrids ultimately may only be a “bridge” to an all-EV future, but OEMs who have fully committed to EVs in the short term may end up regretting their decisions. While traditional ICEs are heading for a sundown, hybridized combustion engines will power perhaps one third of new vehicles for at least the next decade, and millions beyond it. “Let’s just say that by [2030], it’s a 50/50 mix of ICE and BEV,” Dave Filipe, VP of hardware modules at Ford, postulated to the SAE WCX audience. “But that 50-percent ICE is going to be heavily influenced by the hybrids.” And Ford will have more of them, he noted.