Inside Tesla's Cybercab Future

November 22, 2024

Roberto Baldwin

For over a decade, the autonomous vehicle problem has been far more difficult than originally expected for every company involved. The landscape is littered with abandoned attempts.

Tesla doesn't seem to be fazed by the failure of competitors and even its own many missed deadlines to bring autonomous taxis to the market. At its We, Robot event at the Warner Bros. studio in Burbank, CA, Musk appeared onstage to unveil a pair of dedicated robotaxis and a new timetable for the availability of autonomous vehicles.

The first vehicle is the two-seater Cybercab. A cross between the Cybertruck and the Honda CR-Z, the small autonomous vehicle is set to go into production in 2026. Although, Musk did admit a tendency to be optimistic with timelines. At this point in its history, more public Tesla deadlines have been missed than kept.

SAE Media had a chance to ride in the Cybercab. Its small stature and gullwing doors did feel in place in the faux-city Tesla put together on the Warner Bros. lot. The interior was roomy for two people, and the seats were comfortable. The lack of a steering wheel or pedals, while not alarming in the operating domain of a movie set with prescribed routes without the hustle and bustle (and dangers) of a real city, could make some of the public pause before riding.

A large screen offered up bits of sci-fi movies, and a soundtrack straight out of the ‘80s blared in our ears. It was a demo of the potential of the vehicle. As of right now, Tesla does not have a self-driving vehicle on the market.

One of the more controversial decisions by Tesla is to rely entirely on camera vision. Most other companies working on automated driving are using cameras in conjunction with radar and lidar to navigate the world. "I want to emphasize that the solution that we have is AI vision. So there's no expensive equipment needed," Musk told the crowd of fans as he announced that the CyberCab would cost under $30,000.

"I do not think self-driving (or even driving assist) can be reliably accomplished with computer vision." Missy Cummings, professor and director of Mason Autonomy and Robotics Center at George Mason University, told SAE.

"I saw nothing new in the reveal,” Cummings said. “Tesla is at least 10 years away from achieving real self-driving in the network they describe. But I did love their 20-person shuttle and wish they would focus on this. The economies of scale make more sense and they likely could be more successful in the short term (but only if they stop insisting on vision only).”

And a Robovan?

The pivot to a 20-person Robovan was a surprise. Musk has noted his disdain for public transportation in the past. The van would reduce congestion during commutes or trips to the airport. However, during a call with SAE Media, Greg McGuire, managing director of Mcity at the University of Michigan, noted that there was zero mention of accessibility (particularly for wheelchair-bound riders) at the event.

McGuire did like the idea of the CyberCab. "I think the two-seater idea is actually pretty interesting because a smaller form factor vehicle, lighter weight, will definitely contribute to a safer city in terms of just the sheer kinetic energy of a vehicle versus a human. Either bicycle or pedestrian, you know, the less that vehicle weighs, or the slower it's going, the better."

McGuire also echoed Cummings’ concern that the Tesla technology would not be ready by 2027. "The performance of Tesla's full self-driving stack is not – from what I've seen – ready for general Level 4 operation. Will they be there by 2027? At Mcity, we still think there's a couple of key scientific barriers," McGuire said.

Tesla, for its part, has been promising that autonomous vehicles and robotaxis are just around the corner for years. In 2016, CEO Elon Musk mentioned it during an earnings call and in his master plan blog post, which has since been deleted. In 2019, Musk announced that the vehicles would be on the road by the end of that year. In 2020, Musk again said that the robotaxis would be ready by the end of that year.

Being skeptical of Musk's claims is understandable. "Recall all the past promises about FSD, the Roadster, the Cybertruck, etc. While I’m excited about the prospect of the technology –should it actually prove to be safe – I don’t think it’s realistically going to be available at a sub-$30k cost, nor will the Cybercab enter production within the ambitious timeline Musk suggested. You can pretty much toss both of those comments right out the window," Robby DeGraff, manager of product and consumer insights at AutoPacific, told SAE Media in an email.

While Tesla might be bullish on robotaxis, the general public might not be ready, "There’s much work to be done before these things hit the road, regulations to be met, and, equally important, public trust and assurance need to be gained for supervised FSD. Generally speaking, our research shows that consumers remain very hesitant about more advanced forms of autonomy in vehicles, especially ones of their own. There’s not much demand for it," DeGraff said.

Behind the CyberCab

At the end of the ride in the CyberCab, the door swung open and we exited the vehicle. While Tesla wants to do away with individual drivers, these vehicles are typically monitored remotely, and when they get confused, a human needs to interact so that situations like those that have happened in San Francisco with Cruise vehicles blocking the roadway don't become the norm. While walking on the studio lot, in the building behind where Musk and Tesla had set up a stage with enormous screens and a light show, we noticed walls of monitors being watched.

On the screens was the view of the world from the cameras of the CyberCabs and other Tesla models participating in the autonomous demo. Humans were keeping tabs on the vehicles. This is one of the realities of autonomous vehicles. Remote monitoring of the vehicles themselves with occasional human intervention to keep the vehicles on track.

A movie studio made for a great backdrop of an autonomous world where traffic just means more time to watch a film and every car is making someone some extra cash while ferrying their neighbors around. The reality is much tougher, and the world is far more chaotic. Tesla needs to build vehicles that can navigate the real world with all its insanity and, once again, Musk set himself up with a timeline that many don't believe is possible.

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