Brownout for Commercial-Vehicle Electrification?

October 1, 2024

Bill Visnic

The high cost of batteries to electrify on-road commercial vehicles is one thing. But some connected with or studying electrification for the CV sector now are concerned that the cost of installing high-capacity recharging infrastructure for EV versions of trucks, buses and other on-road commercial vehicles is the latest factor with potential to derail the growth of CV electrification.

One prominent study from earlier this year pegged the cost to the freight industry and utilities at a resounding near-$1 trillion to fully electrify all commercial vehicles over the course of roughly 20 years. And that cost is for infrastructure only, exclusive of the vehicles themselves, “which can be two to three times as expensive as their diesel-powered equivalents,” the report asserted.

That study  , “Forecasting a Realistic Electricity Infrastructure Buildout for Medium- & Heavy-Duty Battery Electric Vehicles,” commissioned from Roland Berger by the Clean Freight Coalition, has attracted skepticism regarding its objectivity. The CFC is comprised of the American Bus Association, American Truck Dealers, American Trucking Associations, National Association of Truckstop Operators, National Motor Freight Traffic Association, National Tank Truck Carriers and Truckload Carriers Association.

Few dispute that electrifying all of the many different classes of commercial vehicles will be an expensive undertaking, but most also agree infrastructure is vital to what is believed an inevitable transition – however long that transition takes. Electrification of over-the-road trucking continues to face particular scrutiny, but projected high costs to install charging infrastructure for other types of on-road CVs also are causing concern. There is the promise of a degree of government assistance, but the private sector will bear the majority of the burden, leading to questions of competitiveness for fleets and individual operators during the electrification transition.

The issue of charging-infrastructure costs comes amid ongoing apprehension about the purchase cost for electrified vehicles. Leasing company Ryder Systems told The Wall Street Journal in early 2024 that many of its customers that had begun to purchase electric trucks were having difficulty finding payback compared to counterparts with IC powertrains.

Assumptions raise questions

Some of the Roland Berger study’s key elements are based on comparing CV operating scenarios assuming current technology and foreseeable “improved technology.” This point is critical for long-haul (Class 8) trucking, because the report effectively concludes that an improved-technology scenario – that assumes battery capacity of at least 850 kWh and a usable range of 250 miles (402 km) – will be required for viable long-haul EV trucks. The point also is vital because it underpins the study’s metrics regarding required “local” and on-route charging infrastructure.

“Given current economic and operational constraints, long-haul, over-the-road trucking is ill-suited for electrification today,” the study said. “However, if significant upfront infrastructure investments are made, opportunities for medium-duty (MD) vehicles and last-mile logistics exist. In addition to infrastructure investments, the feasibility of long-haul battery-electric vehicles (BEV) will depend on further vehicle and charger technology advances.” That includes, the study said, on-route charging of 500 kW – 46,000 units at a cost of $69 billion – and 12,000 1-MW chargers totaling $27 billion.

Some of the CFC study’s assumptions and metrics leave room for scrutiny. Daimler Truck, for example, said its latest Mercedes-Benz eActros Class 8 tractor, with three lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) batteries totaling 621 kWh of capacity, offers a maximum driving range of 500 km (310 miles) – but the study indicated the “usable” range is just 180 miles (290 km) and said an 850-kWh battery pack is required to achieve even 250 miles of range. Real-world driving ranges will markedly influence the needed density of high-power chargers.

The report also addresses time and cost to install CV infrastructure when little currently exists. “Where entirely new transmission and substation infrastructure may be necessary, typical lead times are 3 to 8 years,” the report indicates. “At a higher level, we found that the overall cost of utility infrastructure per commercial vehicle electrified will increase exponentially with distance from urban centers.”

Loren McDonald, CEO of the analytics firm EVAdoption, told SAE Media via email, “This speaks to why we will likely have a bifurcated approach of BEVs for shorter-haul routes which can be charged overnight on slow DCFCs or even fast L2 [chargers] and while loading/unloading – and the fuel-cell EV (FCEV) for long-haul.

“For me this report would have been stronger if it had actually made the case for why the commercial truck market will be a multi-powertrain solution – BEV and FCEV, and possibly even some form of hybrid. Instead, it felt like it was just making the case of why 100% BEV is not the answer. I think most in the industry are aware of the challenges of long-haul BEVs.”

At the Decarbonizing Freight Transportation panel session during Carnegie Mellon University’s Energy Week 2024 in Pittsburgh earlier this year, Carly Dobbins-Buckland, senior manager – Ford Pro Charging, confirmed that early infrastructure investments have been daunting for some of its customers. Ford Pro, with some 100,000 distinct fleet customers, addresses “huge variation” in use cases and operational design domain (ODD), she said, but in many projects, customers installing new charging infrastructure are seeing costs up to five times initial projections – and similar multiples for time to install.

Cost for whom?

The CFC study’s nearly $1-trillion figure is provocative but doesn’t address how charging infrastructure’s direct costs ultimately will be borne. The federal government’s Joint Office of Energy and Transportation announced in March 2024 a national Zero-Emissions Freight Corridor Strategy that between now and 2040 seeks to establish 49,000 miles (78,800 km) of roadways to support emissions-free trucking. This “all-of-government approach to aligning investments and accelerating sustainable and scalable deployment of reliable ZE-MHDV infrastructure” surely will include funding to assist and augment the private sector.

Meanwhile, the CFC study’s per-charger cost assumptions “are actually fairly reasonable,” McDonald said. “But there seems to be an assumption that the fleet operators would have to bear the full cost of establishing on-route charging infrastructure.” This won’t be the case, as is obvious from initiatives such as the Zero-Emissions Freight Corridor and, McDonald added, “a growing number of companies like Terawatt, WattEV, etc. that are building out large-scale on-route charging hubs for fleet trucks.”

In Europe, Daimler Truck, the Traton Group and Volvo Trucks in 2022 established a joint venture to install and operate at least 1,700 “high-performance green energy charge points on, and close to, highways as well as at logistics hubs across Europe. The investment was pegged at 500 million euros. Daimler Truck North America, NextEra Energy Resources and BlackRock Renewable Power signed a memorandum of understanding in 2022 for a similar infrastructure investment for medium- and heavy-duty BEVs and FCEVs in the U.S.

Martin Daum, Daimler Truck Holding AG’s CEO, told Bloomberg in May 2024 that nascent CV charging infrastructure “is my biggest concern. The clock is ticking, and time is running out quickly.”

“The big challenge right now is probably more the high cost of both BEV and FCEV trucks,” concluded EVAdoption’s McDonald. “Only fleet operators in markets like California, Washington, New York City and Illinois – where there are huge incentives – are [BEV and FCEV] trucks generally even considered. Until the cost of the trucks comes down, this is going to be a relatively small market. But once they do, just as we saw with [light EVs], the infrastructure investment will follow.”

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